All about chasing the northern lights
The colorful dancing auroras, the rush of submerging into the Arctic, frozen lakes, ferocious snow-clad mountains, Yes! we are talking about the experience of seeing the northern lights. Let's agree, we all want that perfect picture to post in social media and get the 'Aahhaa's' and 'Wow's' but do we really know how to chase it? The science behind it? The probability of actually experiencing it?
Many travelers, like myself, booked the travel to the Arctic circle with the assumption that northern lights show love, if not daily, 3-4 times a week. To my dismay, I realized I not only was blinded by own speculations of my future non-existent posts but also took no efforts to be aware of the science behind it. Google searches and comments stating I could see it from my hotel window just made it look like it was not a task to get a glimpse of the aurora. Not to burst the bubble but they are those lucky people who get tax refunds. I wouldn't say that it is highly impossible or one in a million get to witness it, but if your expectations are to watch dancing colorful auroras covering the entire sky and watching a beautiful show, then it is rare. What actually we witness may just be a faded green arch, which looks overly saturated in long exposure shots. So what factors should we consider before planning and randomly booking the tickets? Here is a list of all the important things one must take into consideration.
1) Understand why it happens -
This is the most basic thing we must know before we start running behind the perfect pictures. Auroras are the colorful reactions when the solar particles collide with the gases in our atmosphere. What are these particles? They are the particles released due to eruptions on the sun. The solar wind carries these charged particles into space. So why does it not hit the earth's atmosphere everywhere but only the north and south pole? The earth's magnetic shield deflects these particles to the irresistible magnetic north and south pole. The following diagram is enough to help you get a basic understanding.
So does it only happen at night? No, these particles are throughout the day entering the magnetic fields, the only difference is it is only visible in the darkness.
2) Solar cycle-
From the above, it is obvious how important these particles are and the importance of these activities on the sun. It may be possible that planning this trip is a one-off, so to make it right in the first go make sure to check the solar cycle. Scientists have identified a pattern in the level of activities on the sun. The higher the activities the more particles in the solar wind which increases the chances of capturing a high activity of northern lights. So how much of a difference does it make? If you are traveling during the peak of the solar cycle, you may witness highly active auroras more than once a week but the same during off-peak years happens once or twice a month. It is an 11-year cycle with 2020 being at the lowest. If you are at the planning stage and have patience 2025 will be the ideal year for you to go. The following chart must help you understand it further
3) KP Index-
Now let's assume to wish to watch the northern lights and not in the mood to wait till 2025 predicting the world may end anytime soon so why not grab all the opportunities now, then the least you can do is plan your trip after considering the KP index. What is this KP index? In layman's language, it is the width of the band of the activities. The index starts from KP0 and ends at KP8. If you are at KP8, that means you are likely to spot some activity in the UK too. Yes, that's how important the KP index is to get the perfect visuals. To understand the width at each level, the following diagram can be useful
So we know at what KP index, which areas have the potential for some visible activities. The higher the KP, the more surface of the sky gets covered. Imagine you are at a KP0 area and the KP index is 8, the entire sky will be your stage but if it is KP2, it will be like sitting on the backseats of a cinema hall.
How do we check the KP index and plan our travel?
A prediction is offered almost 28 days before. This will not only help you make your travel plans in advance but also increase your chances of finding a good aurora if other factors cater to you.
Click to get the long term forecast - Predictions for Next 28 days
4) Preferable months-
As much as the KP index is important, you would be staring at the bright sky if you do not go in the correct month. So what is the right month to plan your travels, Ideal time is from October to March. These months have long dark nights which create the perfect ambiance for your meet and greet with the auroras. Many online suggest to visit during December and January due to the polar nights but I do not agree. Thanks to the unstable weather, you are likely to get clouds interrupting you with rains and snow, making it tough to spot the auroras. The clearer skies are often found during March and October.
5) Weather forecasts-
On the day of chasing the first thing, you should look out for are the clouds. Northern lights are not visible when the coverage is high. When you can spot the stars in the sky it is the best time to have a beautiful aurora show. It may also help you chase to clearer areas, let's say one place is predicted with 100% cloud coverage the entire night but just a few minutes drive from there, there is a prediction of a clearer sky, so to increase your chances it's better to drive to locations with less city light and less cloud coverage. Most of the weather forecast apps can help you with an hourly prediction to help you move around.
6) The complicated solar particles-
So here is where the science starts, but if you get this part you can avoid a lot of staring at the blank sky time. Especially in freezing chilly weather. So what are we looking at? Firstly, we have a spacecraft, which helps us provide an hour forecast of what is reaching the earth's surface, at what speed, and where are the particles going towards, north or south pole. It is important to understand that the timeline used by the space center is UTC. The solar speed helps us calculate the amount of time it will take for the particles to reach us. Now how do we know which particles go where? So here comes the smart work, negative particles move to the north pole and positive ones travel south. The graph on the space weather website provides a graph, the graph with the term Bz is what will provide us the particle information. When the graph goes negative that means the spacecraft has recorded the charge of the particles being negative and the time. This time is mentioned below the graph. This time must be added with the solar wind time. Let's take an example, the spacecraft at 7 PM UTC found some negative particles, the solar wind speed is 60 minutes, which means it will take 60 more minutes before it hits the earth's atmosphere. So at approx 8PM UTC I can see the aurora, but remember, it's wind so 20 mins up and down are expected. It's updated hourly so keep checking it. It is also to be noted that if it does not dip a lot, it will just be a faded line for a few seconds. So keep praying the graph dips to -2.5 to get a decent experience.
How do we get this information, just check it on this site - Graphs
7) Solar density-
Solar density gives you information on how dense the activity will be. If it is <10 it means you may see a faded line, any increase in this number means it gets better, and if it >40, man you are for a treat if all other factors align with it.
8) Colors of Aurora-
Now, this is sheer luck. On the dark nights, it is slightly tough to spot the darker shades with lower density, but brighter shade like green can be spotted even at low density. Each color is formed after its collision at different layers of the atmosphere. The following diagram will help you understand the same
Space weather live is the website you must hang on too. It's the best source of information and extremely reliable.
I hope you enjoy this information, for any queries do not forget to comment. I will help you as much as I can :)
Many travelers, like myself, booked the travel to the Arctic circle with the assumption that northern lights show love, if not daily, 3-4 times a week. To my dismay, I realized I not only was blinded by own speculations of my future non-existent posts but also took no efforts to be aware of the science behind it. Google searches and comments stating I could see it from my hotel window just made it look like it was not a task to get a glimpse of the aurora. Not to burst the bubble but they are those lucky people who get tax refunds. I wouldn't say that it is highly impossible or one in a million get to witness it, but if your expectations are to watch dancing colorful auroras covering the entire sky and watching a beautiful show, then it is rare. What actually we witness may just be a faded green arch, which looks overly saturated in long exposure shots. So what factors should we consider before planning and randomly booking the tickets? Here is a list of all the important things one must take into consideration.
1) Understand why it happens -
This is the most basic thing we must know before we start running behind the perfect pictures. Auroras are the colorful reactions when the solar particles collide with the gases in our atmosphere. What are these particles? They are the particles released due to eruptions on the sun. The solar wind carries these charged particles into space. So why does it not hit the earth's atmosphere everywhere but only the north and south pole? The earth's magnetic shield deflects these particles to the irresistible magnetic north and south pole. The following diagram is enough to help you get a basic understanding.
So does it only happen at night? No, these particles are throughout the day entering the magnetic fields, the only difference is it is only visible in the darkness.
2) Solar cycle-
From the above, it is obvious how important these particles are and the importance of these activities on the sun. It may be possible that planning this trip is a one-off, so to make it right in the first go make sure to check the solar cycle. Scientists have identified a pattern in the level of activities on the sun. The higher the activities the more particles in the solar wind which increases the chances of capturing a high activity of northern lights. So how much of a difference does it make? If you are traveling during the peak of the solar cycle, you may witness highly active auroras more than once a week but the same during off-peak years happens once or twice a month. It is an 11-year cycle with 2020 being at the lowest. If you are at the planning stage and have patience 2025 will be the ideal year for you to go. The following chart must help you understand it further
Now let's assume to wish to watch the northern lights and not in the mood to wait till 2025 predicting the world may end anytime soon so why not grab all the opportunities now, then the least you can do is plan your trip after considering the KP index. What is this KP index? In layman's language, it is the width of the band of the activities. The index starts from KP0 and ends at KP8. If you are at KP8, that means you are likely to spot some activity in the UK too. Yes, that's how important the KP index is to get the perfect visuals. To understand the width at each level, the following diagram can be useful
How do we check the KP index and plan our travel?
A prediction is offered almost 28 days before. This will not only help you make your travel plans in advance but also increase your chances of finding a good aurora if other factors cater to you.
4) Preferable months-
As much as the KP index is important, you would be staring at the bright sky if you do not go in the correct month. So what is the right month to plan your travels, Ideal time is from October to March. These months have long dark nights which create the perfect ambiance for your meet and greet with the auroras. Many online suggest to visit during December and January due to the polar nights but I do not agree. Thanks to the unstable weather, you are likely to get clouds interrupting you with rains and snow, making it tough to spot the auroras. The clearer skies are often found during March and October.
5) Weather forecasts-
On the day of chasing the first thing, you should look out for are the clouds. Northern lights are not visible when the coverage is high. When you can spot the stars in the sky it is the best time to have a beautiful aurora show. It may also help you chase to clearer areas, let's say one place is predicted with 100% cloud coverage the entire night but just a few minutes drive from there, there is a prediction of a clearer sky, so to increase your chances it's better to drive to locations with less city light and less cloud coverage. Most of the weather forecast apps can help you with an hourly prediction to help you move around.
6) The complicated solar particles-
So here is where the science starts, but if you get this part you can avoid a lot of staring at the blank sky time. Especially in freezing chilly weather. So what are we looking at? Firstly, we have a spacecraft, which helps us provide an hour forecast of what is reaching the earth's surface, at what speed, and where are the particles going towards, north or south pole. It is important to understand that the timeline used by the space center is UTC. The solar speed helps us calculate the amount of time it will take for the particles to reach us. Now how do we know which particles go where? So here comes the smart work, negative particles move to the north pole and positive ones travel south. The graph on the space weather website provides a graph, the graph with the term Bz is what will provide us the particle information. When the graph goes negative that means the spacecraft has recorded the charge of the particles being negative and the time. This time is mentioned below the graph. This time must be added with the solar wind time. Let's take an example, the spacecraft at 7 PM UTC found some negative particles, the solar wind speed is 60 minutes, which means it will take 60 more minutes before it hits the earth's atmosphere. So at approx 8PM UTC I can see the aurora, but remember, it's wind so 20 mins up and down are expected. It's updated hourly so keep checking it. It is also to be noted that if it does not dip a lot, it will just be a faded line for a few seconds. So keep praying the graph dips to -2.5 to get a decent experience.
How do we get this information, just check it on this site - Graphs
7) Solar density-
Solar density gives you information on how dense the activity will be. If it is <10 it means you may see a faded line, any increase in this number means it gets better, and if it >40, man you are for a treat if all other factors align with it.
8) Colors of Aurora-
Now, this is sheer luck. On the dark nights, it is slightly tough to spot the darker shades with lower density, but brighter shade like green can be spotted even at low density. Each color is formed after its collision at different layers of the atmosphere. The following diagram will help you understand the same
Space weather live is the website you must hang on too. It's the best source of information and extremely reliable.
I hope you enjoy this information, for any queries do not forget to comment. I will help you as much as I can :)
Comments
Post a Comment